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Sorting through possible trade partners for Sonny Gray

October 24, 2018 by Mike

Once the offseason really gets going in a few weeks, we’ll all focus on who the Yankees will add over the winter. Manny Machado? Bryce Harper? Patrick Corbin? Mystery players? Brian Cashman has said the rotation will be the “focus point” this winter and that is no surprise given the state of the starting staff. The Yankees also need to figure out left field, the infield without Didi Gregorius, and also reinforce the bullpen.

While we understandably spend an unhealthy about of time looking at who the Yankees could acquire this winter, we also have to remember the Yankees are trying to subtract a player as well. That player: Sonny Gray. Gray has been a colossal disappointment in pinstripes (4.51 ERA and 4.40 FIP in 195.2 innings) and Cashman Has made it clear the Yankees will look to trade Gray this winter. He was unusually candid at his end-of-season press conference.

“It hasn’t worked out thus far,” said Cashman at that press conference. “I think he’s extremely talented. We’ll enter the winter, unfortunately, open-minded to a relocation. To maximize his abilities, it would be more likely best somewhere else. If I do find a match, you’re gonna see what we had hoped to see here … Someone, if they trade for him, is gonna get the player we wanted. I fully expect that.”

Cashman made a point of saying he won’t give Gray away — what’s he supposed to say? — but, clearly, the Yankees want to move him. Usually in these cases the GM says it’s up to the team to help the player figure it out. Cashman skipped that entirely. Having listened to Cashman and Aaron Boone and Larry Rothschild all season, I sense a lot of frustration here, and the Yankees are ready to move on. I’m not surprised.

As a 28-year-old starting pitcher with a good track record — even after last season, Sonny has a 3.66 ERA (3.74 FIP) in 900.2 big league innings — and a relatively low salary (projected $9.1M in 2019), I get the feeling the Yankees will have no trouble finding potential trade partners for Gray. And remember, he was great outside Yankee Stadium this year (3.17 ERA and 2.65 FIP). Teams will notice. If Sonny were on any other team, wouldn’t we look at him as a possible buy-low candidate? Sure we would. That’s how other teams see him.

With the caveat that things can be unpredictable in the offseason, I’ve singled out several clubs who appear to be possible trade suitors for Gray. Even though he’ll be a free agent next offseason, I don’t think Gray’s market is limited to contending teams. A rebuilding club could be looking at him as a buy-low candidate they could flip for more at the trade deadline, or sign long-term. The Reds traded for Matt Harvey, right? Same idea. Let’s dive in. (Reminder: My trade proposal sucks.)

Chicago White Sox

Why would they want Gray? The rebuild hit a bump in the road this season. Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson didn’t take that step forward, Lucas Giolito went backwards, and Michael Kopech went down with Tommy John surgery. The ChiSox are always looking to acquire high-end talent though — they reportedly made a run at Machado at the deadline — and Don Cooper is a highly regarded pitching coach with a history of fixing pitchers. Getting Sonny on the cheap and seeing whether he can be a viable long-term rotation piece could interest the White Sox.

Who could they send the Yankees? Gray for Carson Fulmer? Eh, that’s one headache for another. Fulmer hasn’t even pitched well in Triple-A. The only thing he has going for him right now is the fading “eighth overall pick in 2015” shine. Unless a deal gets expanded, the return here would most likely be a prospect(s). Not sure there’s a Gray for big leaguer trade that makes sense, not unless the ChiSox are willing to sell super low on Giolito, which kinda defeats the purpose.

Cincinnati Reds

Why would they want Gray? Again, they traded for Harvey, right? The Reds took a flier on a talented pitcher to see whether he could be a long-term option. A no-risk move that didn’t cost them anything. Cincinnati desperately needs pitching help and taking a chance on Gray the same way they took a chance on Harvey could be a worthwhile endeavor. From their perspective, it’s all about cost.

Who could they send the Yankees? One year of Gray for one year of Scooter Gennett? The Yankees would do that in a heartbeat and the Reds would assuredly want more, and hey, maybe that’s a gap the two teams can bridge. The Reds have a lot of young pitchers who’ve stalled out at the MLB level (Cody Reed, Amir Garrett) and the Yankees could try to pry one (or two) of them loose in hopes of adding a long-term piece. Reclamation project for reclamation project, basically.

Houston Astros

Why would they want Gray? The Astros could lose Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency this offseason, and while they have some in-house rotation options (Josh James, Collin McHugh, Brad Peacock), they could pursue outside help. Sonny still has excellent spin rates across the board and Houston may see him as a good low-cost, high-upside candidate for their pitching lab. Keep in mind the Astros pursued Gray at the 2017 trade deadline as well. They’ve had interest in him before.

Who could they send the Yankees? Despite being a World Series contender, Houston has not been shy about trading players off their MLB roster, though they’ve been spare parts (Joe Musgrove) and out-of-favor guys (Ken Giles). The Yankees could push something like one year of Gray for one year of Peacock or one year of McHugh. Peacock was quite good as a starter last season before shifting to the bullpen this year and eventually being left off the postseason roster. Gray for Peacock? That seems like it could be a potential win-win or a potential lopsided deal for either team.

Los Angeles Angels

Why would they want Gray? Pretty simple, really. Mike Trout is two years from free agency, so the Angels aren’t about to rebuild, and they need rotation help. Andrew Heaney and Tyler Skaggs are a good enough rotation top two. Getting a guy like Gray to slot in behind Heaney and Skaggs and ahead of dudes like Felix Pena, Jaime Barria, and Nick Tropeano makes sense for the Angels. Get Sonny out of New York and into a more pitcher friendly ballpark.

Who could they send the Yankees? Gray for Kole Calhoun? It’s a one-year commitment for each and the money is close to a wash, plus the Angels wouldn’t have much trouble finding a replacement corner outfielder in free agency. Calhoun’s a lefty bat and a very good defender who would slot in nicely in left field. He just stopped hitting though. Calhoun went from a 117 wRC+ in 2016 to a 98 wRC+ in 2017 to a 79 wRC+ in 2018. Eh. Put Gray in a more pitcher friendly ballpark and Calhoun in a more hitter friendly ballpark and maybe it works out for both teams?

Milwaukee Brewers

Why would they want Gray? I still think the Brewers are the best landing spot for Gray. They need rotation help and their pitching coach, Derek Johnson, was Sonny’s pitching coach at Vanderbilt. The two are close. It’s a fit. Milwaukee has done a real nice job accumulating talent under GM David Stearns and Gray seems right up their alley as an upside play.

Who could they send the Yankees? Two names jumped to mind: Chase Anderson and Eric Thames. Anderson was great in 2017 (2.74 ERA and 3.58 FIP) and not so great in 2018 (3.93 ERA and 5.22 FIP), so much so that he was left off the postseason roster. He is guaranteed $6.5M next year with affordable options for 2020 and 2021. I’m not sure the Brewers are ready to give up on him yet. They’re trying to add pitching, not subtract it. Besides, bringing a dude who gave up 30 homers in 158 innings this season into Yankee Stadium might not work out too well.

As for Thames, remember his huge April last year? Well, his performance has cratered since, and he hit .219/.306/.478 (105 wRC+) this year. Jesus Aguilar jumped him on the first base depth chart. Ryan Braun has also played some first base, so Thames is probably third on their first base depth chart. He wasn’t even on the Brewers postseason roster. Thames has one guaranteed year remaining on his contract ($7M) and Gray for Thames gives the Brewers a starter and the Yankees a lefty power bat they could plug in at first base or DH or, in an emergency, the outfield. Hmmm.

UPDATE: I should’ve mentioned Jonathan Schoop here as well, given that he’s a free agent next winter who is projected to make similar money as Gray. I just assumed the Brewers are not ready to flip him after trading some pretty good prospects to get him at the deadline. Schoop’s someone to keep in mind though.

Oakland Athletics

Why would they want Gray? I’ve heard through the grapevine that the A’s checked in on Gray at this year’s trade deadline. They really need starting pitching — they didn’t have anyone to start in the Wild Card Game! — and they know Sonny as well as anyone. The Athletics do have a history of trading for pricey veteran players one year before free agency (Jim Johnson and Luke Gregerson jump to mind) and again, they know Gray. They showed interest at the deadline and may look to bring him back to Oakland again this winter.

Who could they send the Yankees? Reverse the trade! Gray for James Kaprielian, Jorge Mateo, and Dustin Fowler! Nah, not happening. This trade has no winners right now. Mateo stunk this year, Kaprielian still hasn’t returned to game action following Tommy John surgery in April 2017, and Fowler struggled in MLB this year and was passed by Ramon Laureano on the center field depth chart. I don’t see an obvious big leaguer for big leaguer trade match here. It would have to be a prospect(s) that come back to New York.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Why would they want Gray? This is a long shot, I think. The Pirates traded Gerrit Cole last year because they were worried they couldn’t sign him long-term. Would they then turn around and trade for Gray when he could leave next year? I mean, sure, it’s possible, and they do need someone to slot alongside Chris Archer, Jameson Taillon, Ivan Nova, and Trevor Williams in the rotation. Money might be the issue here. Pittsburgh operates on a strict budget and Gray may not fit.

Who could they send the Yankees? Hey, if Gray signs at his MLBTR projected salary, he and Nova would be a wash financially. The Pirates aren’t doing that though. Besides, I’ve seen enough Ivan Nova for one lifetime. He’s been the same old Ivan Nova the last two years (98 ERA+ and 4.51 FIP) after his stellar eleven-start cameo with Pittsburgh in 2016. Would the Pirates do Gray for Corey Dickerson? The Yankees could slot Dickerson in at left field and DH and he’d give them a good lefty bat. Seems unlikely. I don’t see a good big leaguer for big leaguer trade. A prospect(s) trade it would have to be.

San Diego Padres

Why would they want Gray? The Padres are my sleeper team. They have no money on the books long-term other than Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer, and their farm system is incredible. One of the best I’ve ever seen. They are very well-positioned to take a chance on Gray, see what he does next season, then pay to keep him if he’s a fit. San Diego reportedly tried to land Noah Syndergaard at the deadline. They’re looking for pitching. Gray’s no Syndergaard, but he could be really good, and the Padres are the perfect team to roll the dice.

Who could they send the Yankees? I thought about Cory Spangenberg. He’ll never live up to hype associated with being the tenth overall pick in 2011, but he’s a lefty bat who can play the three non-first base infield positions and also left field. The downside is Spangenberg has only hit .252/.318/.385 (88 wRC+) with a 29.0% strikeout rate in 815 plate appearances the last two years. He has two years of control remaining and perhaps the Yankees will see him as a poor man’s Didi Gregorius/Aaron Hicks. The talented player who hasn’t put together yet. I dunno. Aside from prospects, there’s no much on San Diego’s roster that excites me.

San Francisco Giants

Why would they want Gray? San Francisco’s interest in Gray depends entirely on their long-term plan. They’re hiring a new baseball operations head this winter and, if they decide to rebuild, forget it. No reason to bring in Gray. If they decide to go for it next year while Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey (and Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt) are in their primes, then the Giants could definitely be a team to watch for Gray. Their rotation is pretty sketchy with Jeff Samardzija crashing and Johnny Cueto having Tommy John surgery.

Who could they send the Yankees? In last week’s mailbag I looked at Joe Panik and Tony Watson. I can’t see the Giants trading Watson for Gray for two reasons. One, they could get more for him elsewhere. And two, if they trade for Gray, it’s because they want to win in 2019, and trading Watson hurts that cause. As for Panik, that seems more reasonable. Both he and Gray are reclamation projects at this point and San Francisco has some others they could plug in at second base. The Yankees have liked Panik in the past and they could bring him aboard as their second baseman (with Gleyber Torres shifting to shortstop) until Gregorius returns. Other than Panik and Watson, I don’t see another fit with the Giants. Their big league roster is thin and their farm system is weak.

Seattle Mariners

Why would they want Gray? Depending who you ask, the Mariners have either seven viable big league starters (Roenis Elias, Marco Gonzales, Felix Hernandez, Mike Leake, Wade LeBlanc, James Paxton, Erasmo Ramirez) or three viable big league starters (Gonzales, Leake, Paxton). Felix has crashed hard the last few years and Elias, LeBlanc, and Ramirez are journeymen. If Gray leaves New York and pitches like he did earlier in his career, he’d be the second best starter in Seattle’s rotation, hands down. The window is closing and GM Jerry Dipoto has made it clear he’s going to do all he can to win before it slams shut.

Who could they send the Yankees? Geez, I have no idea. Their farm system is barren and their best big leaguers with short-term control are Felix (nope), Denard Span (eh), Juan Nicasio (nope), and Nick Vincent (nope). I’m sure we could cobble together an acceptable trade package if we tried hard enough. Nothing jumps out to me though.

Washington Nationals

Why would they want Gray? As bad as they were this year (82-80), the Nationals remain a win-now team. They still have Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Juan Soto, and Victor Robles even if Bryce Harper leaves. Pretty good core! The Nationals could absolutely contend next season in the blob of mediocrity that is the National League. Washington has Scherzer, Strasburg, Tanner Roark, and maybe Joe Ross in their rotation. There is definitely room for Gray.

Who could they send the Yankees? Gray for Adam Eaton? The money is close to a wash and the Nationals could still move forward with a Soto-Robles-Michael Taylor/free agent outfield should Harper not return. Knee and ankle injuries have limited Eaton to 118 games the last two seasons, but, when healthy, he’s hit .300/.394/.422 (123 wRC+). That’s really good! The downside is the leg injuries have sapped his defensive and baserunning value. As a stopgap left fielder, Eaton could work real nice. Would the Nationals really trade such a high on-base leadoff hitter if they’re trying to win though? I don’t see any other players on their big league roster that make sense.

* * *

Cashman is not an idiot. He was so open about trading Gray because he knows there’s interest and he won’t have any trouble drumming up potential trade partners. If he were worried at all about his trade leverage, he would’ve said the Yankees plan to keep Gray and get him right. That’s not what happened. In all likelihood multiple teams will be involved and the Yankees will benefit from a bidding war.

That doesn’t mean they’re going to walk away with a great package, of course. At the end of the day, Sonny is still coming off a terrible season and he’s still only under control one more season. His trade value is not sky high. It’s not nil though. I get the feeling we’re in for a lot of Sonny Gray rumors this winter, and, when it’s all said and done, the Yankees are going to end up with more than you’d expect for a dude coming off a replacement level season.

Trade Deadline Rumors: Gausman, Britton, Straily, Gray, Abreu

July 23, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Greg Bird’s high school batterymate. (Scott Taetsch/Getty)

The 2018 non-waiver trade deadline is one week and one day away now. Already Manny Machado, Brad Hand, and Jeurys Familia have been moved. More deals are on the way and I am pretty certain the Yankees will trade for a starting pitcher at some point before next Tuesday. Just don’t ask me which starting pitcher. Anyway, here are the latest rumors.

Yankees have checked in on Gausman

The Yankees have checked in on Orioles right-hander Kevin Gausman, reports Roch Kubatko. With Machado gone, the O’s might as well hang a “For Sale” sign on the rest of the roster. No sense in keeping anyone because they probably won’t be around long enough to be part of the next contending Orioles team, including Gausman, who is under team control through 2020. Trade him. Trade them all.

The 27-year-old Gausman is having a very typical Kevin Gausman season, which means a 4.33 ERA (4.48 FIP) with okay-ish enough strikeout (20.0%), walk (5.6%), and grounder (46.7%) rates. We’ve seen enough of Gausman over the years to know that, when he’s on, he can dominate any lineup. A mid-90s fastball that still touches 99 mph combined with a good slider and a nasty splitter is quite the arsenal. I can’t help but feel like Gausman should be so much better than he currently is. Depending on the price, I’m totally on board with him as a change of scenery guy.

Yankees among several teams in on Britton

The Yankees are among several teams with interest in O’s closer Zach Britton, reports Jon Heyman and Jerry Crasnick. Britton is an impending free agent and he’s as good as gone before Tuesday’s deadline. There’s no doubt about that. Did the Familia trade set the market for Britton? Both are impending free agents and Familia has been healthier. The Mets basically salary dumped Familia for two fringe prospects and international bonus money.

Since coming back from his Achilles injury Britton has a 3.45 ERA (4.43 FIP) with a 64.1% ground ball rate in 15.2 innings. He’s been much, much better the last few times out as he continues to shake off the rust following a long layoff. Maybe Aroldis Chapman’s ongoing knee issues and near meltdown Saturday has me spooked, but I am totally cool with going after another high-end reliever. Chasen Shreve is easily replaceable, so even if Chapman stays healthy and effective the rest of the way, there’s still room in the bullpen for a guy like Britton.

Teams scouting Gray

Several teams are scouting — and have interest in — Sonny Gray, and, according to Heyman and Nick Cafardo, there is some belief the Yankees want to move him. Of course, the Yankees still want to add to their rotation, so trading Gray means they’d have to bring in two starters, not just one. Can’t say I’m surprised teams are interested in buying low on Gray, who has a strong track record, is under control next season, and has pitched well outside hitter friendly Yankee Stadium.

So far this season Sonny has a 5.34 ERA (4.41 FIP) and, while he’s pitched better his last two times out, I think we’re still a long way from saying he’s turned the corner. I need to see more. A lot more. If the Yankees can use Gray as part of a package to get a high-end starter with control beyond this season, then by all means do it. I wouldn’t trade him just to trade him though. That’s silly. Getting Sonny to right the ship is probably the single best rotation addition the Yankees can make the rest of the way.

Yankees, Marlins talked Straily

According to Heyman, the Yankees briefly spoke to the Marlins about right-hander Dan Straily, though the two sides are not close to a deal. If nothing else, Straily can’t become a free agent until the 2020-21 offseason, so he’s a controllable starter. The Marlins are terrible and presumably willing to trade anyone, including Straily. He’s available. This is a not a “they might not want to move him” situation.

Straily, 29, has a 4.02 ERA (5.27 FIP) with 18.9% strikeouts this season, and he continues to have a skill set poorly suited for Yankee Stadium. That means lots of walks (11.1%) and few ground balls (33.5%). He’s posted a 1.52 HR/9 and 13.5% HR/FB rate the last two seasons despite pitching his home games in spacious Marlins Park. Straily’s worth a phone call because why not? Never hurts to check in. He just seems like a real bad fit for Yankee Stadium and the AL East in general.

Giants have interest in Abreu

The Giants have interest in right-hander Albert Abreu, my No. 4 Yankees prospect, reports Brendan Kuty. Abreu is currently on the High-A Tampa disabled list with an elbow issue but is a midseason top 100 prospect according to MLB.com (60th) and Baseball America (79th). Abreu will be 23 in September and he’s thrown 129.1 total innings since Opening Day 2017 due to a variety of injuries. He is not a prospect worth hugging. Abreu should absolutely be available.

Here’s the thing though: What do the Giants have to offer the Yankees? Forget about Madison Bumgarner. They’re not trading him. It’s not realistic at all. Johnny Cueto? Jeff Samardzija? No and no. Too many injuries and too expensive. Perhaps lefty relievers Tony Watson and Will Smith make sense. The Yankees did try to sign Watson over the winter, remember. Watson and Smith have both been excellent this year and San Francisco needs to dump salary to get under the $197M luxury tax threshold, which is a goal. That’s why Austin Jackson was salary dumped earlier this month. Hmmm. Maybe Abreu for Watson or Smith works?

Yanks offered Drury for Machado; Padres wanted Andujar for Hand

According to Cafardo, the Yankees included Brandon Drury in their offer for Machado before he was traded to the Dodgers. Also, according to Andy Martino, the Padres requested Miguel Andujar during trade talks about Hand. Considering San Diego was able to pry elite prospect Francisco Mejia away from the Indians in the Hand trade, asking for Andujar wasn’t far-fetched at all.

Anyway, the Yankees have two Major League caliber third basemen in Andujar and Drury, so it only makes sense to make at least one of them available. That said, Drury is versatile enough to play elsewhere — the Yankees have started using him at first and second bases recently — so it’s not imperative they clear the logjam. There’s room for both guys on the roster. But, if one can net you a really good pitcher or a dude like Machado, go for it.

Trade Deadline Rumors: Eovaldi, Hand, Moustakas, D’Backs

July 10, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Nasty Nate in your area. (Rich Schultz/Getty)

We are now three weeks away from the 2018 non-waiver trade deadline and the Manny Machado rumors have arrived. It feels like a foregone conclusion the Yankees will do something before the deadline. I’m not sure what, exactly, but I’d bet on adding a starting pitcher. Anyway, here’s the latest batch of trade deadline rumors.

Yankees scouting Eovaldi

The Yankees were among the teams with a scout on hand for Nathan Eovaldi’s most recent start, reports Marc Topkin. Eovaldi took a perfect game into the seventh inning against the Mets on Sunday and finished the afternoon with one hit allowed in seven shutout innings. He struck out nine. On one hand, that’s undeniably excellent. On the other hand, it was the Mets, so yeah.

Eovaldi, now 28, has a 3.35 ERA (4.16 FIP) with very good strikeout (24.3%), walk (3.3%), and ground ball (48.8%) rates in eight starts and 48.1 innings back from his second Tommy John surgery. He’s on a cheap ($2M) one-year contract and it is all but certain the Rays will trade him before the deadline. Tampa has Eovaldi using his cutter more, which could explain his effectiveness. The Yankees know Eovaldi well, if nothing else. He’s worth a longer look outside a rumor roundup setting. Stay tuned.

Yankees interested in Hand

According to Jon Heyman, the Yankees are among the teams with interest in lefty reliever Brad Hand. Hand is signed affordably through 2020 with a $10M club option for 2021. The Yankees have a very strong and deep bullpen already, but there’s always room for another quality reliever. Swap out Chasen Shreve for Hand and the bullpen would be even better.

Hand is probably the top reliever on the trade market right now and the price tag figures to be very high given his performance and contract. He’s not too dissimilar from Andrew Miller circa 2016. The Yankees had interest in him at last year’s deadline and adding another reliever does make some sense. Adding Hand won’t solve the rotation issues but he would make the Yankees better, and that’s the name of the game, getting better. Especially in a division race this tight.

Yankees, Blue Jays still discussing Happ

According to Buster Olney (subs. req’d), the Yankees and Blue Jays are “continuing conversations” about left-hander J.A. Happ. The two sides are said to be “haggling over the price tag.” I guess the Yankees have not been scared away by Happ’s recent performance. It’s not just his dud against the Yankees over the weekend. In his last four starts Happ has allowed 20 runs and 38 baserunners (and six homers) in 22.2 innings. He has a 4.44 ERA (3.97 FIP) for the season.

The Yankees are not prone to small sample size (over)reactions. They’re a big picture organization. That doesn’t mean they’ll ignore Happ’s recent struggles, but if they’re comfortable with the medicals and their scouts and analytical folks think this is just a bump in the road, they could pursue Happ anyway. The trade deadline pitching options don’t look all that appealing right now. Happ, even with his recent struggles, may be the best bet the rest of the season. I’m not surprised the Yankees are still involved.

Yankees considering Moustakas for first base

Just put anyone at first base how hard could it be. (Dilip Vishwanat/Getty)

The Yankees are considering longtime Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas for first base, reports Jon Morosi. This sounds more like an idea the Yankees are kicking around rather than a “the two teams are talking” rumor. Moustakas has played a handful of games at first base this year — he’d never played a position other than third prior to this season — and he’s on a cheap ($6.5M) contract.

Greg Bird is maybe kinda sorta starting to hit a bit — he is 7-for-29 (.241) with five walks (.371 OBP) in his last eight games and his at-bats have been much better — but he’s still hitting an underwhelming .203/.324/.398 (100 wRC+) overall. Moustakas is hitting a slightly better .251/.308/.464 (106 wRC+) overall, including .207/.270/.393 (77 wRC+) since the day Bird made his season debut. Plus he hasn’t played much first base at all. Like I’ve been saying, if Bird isn’t hitting by the All-Star break, go get a first baseman. An actual first baseman, preferably.

D’Backs, Rangers, Phillies scouting Yankees

The Diamondbacks, Rangers, and Phillies all had scouts watching Triple-A Scranton over the weekend, reports George King. The Reds and Royals continue to scout the Yankees as well. Most of the RailRiders’ best players (Brandon Drury, Clint Frazier, Tyler Wade) were in the big leagues at the time, but Billy McKinney is still down there, and over the weekend pitching prospects Justus Sheffield, Josh Rogers, and Chance Adams all started for Scranton.

The Rangers stink and are going to trade Cole Hamels before the trade deadline, so it makes sense that they’ve got eyes on the Yankees. What about the D’Backs and Phillies? They’re contenders! They’re not just contenders, they’re in first place! I suppose Arizona could be doing due diligence in case they collapse and decide to trade Patrick Corbin? Unless the Phillies make a young starter like Nick Pivetta or Zach Eflin (or Aaron Nola!) available, I’m not sure they match up well with the Yankees for a trade.

Trade Deadline Notes: Harvey, Happ, Ross, Royals, Tigers

July 7, 2018 by Mike Leave a Comment

Later today the Yankees and Blue Jays will continue their three-game weekend series with the middle game. That’s a 4:07pm ET start. Here are some trade deadline notes to check out in the meantime.

Harvey “not high” on Yankees’ list

The kinda maybe possibly good again Matt Harvey is “not high” on the Yankees’ list of trade targets, reports Jon Heyman. Heyman says that, among other things, the Yankees are worried about a “potential circus” that would follow Harvey’s return to New York. Yeah, it sure would create a media frenzy. That’s for sure. I’m sure the Yankees would happily live with the headache if Harvey were still a no-doubt ace, but that is no longer the case.

Harvey owns a 4.91 ERA (4.67 FIP) in 80.2 total innings this season, though he’s been better since being traded to the Reds, pitching to a 3.86 ERA (4.20 FIP) in 53.2 innings. He’s been especially good the last three times out, allowing only three runs with a 14/2 K/BB in 18.1 innings against contending teams (Cubs, Braves, Brewers). Jay Jaffe had a good breakdown of Harvey’s revival. Strip away the name and I don’t think the current version of Harvey generates much buzz as a trade candidate. Meh.

Yankees are “main player” for Happ

According to Heyman, the Yankees are a “main player” for J.A. Happ and he’s either at or near the top of their deadline shopping list. The Brewers and Mariners are said to have interest as well, and I’m sure other teams will enter the mix before the trade deadline. The Yankees will get (another) firsthand look at Happ later this afternoon, when he takes the mound at Rogers Centre in the middle game of this three-game series.

The 35-year-old Happ is sitting on a 4.03 ERA (3.64 FIP) after getting clobbered for seven runs in 5.2 innings against the Tigers last time out. Prior to that he had a more palatable 3.62 ERA (3.58 FIP) in 97 innings. I think Happ is the best available rental in a pretty crummy market. A quality southpaw who is familiar with the AL East would be a welcome addition to the rotation. The trade that sent Scott Kazmir from the Athletics to the Astros in 2015 seems like a decent trade benchmark. The A’s landed two top 20 organizational prospects (Daniel Mengden and Jacob Nottingham) in that deal.

Yankees don’t have much interest in Ross

The Yankees do not have as much interest in Tyson Ross as they do other trade targets like Happ and Michael Fulmer, reports Lindsey Alder (subs. req’d). The 31-year-old Ross is on a dirt cheap one-year contract with the last place Padres and chances are he’ll be traded before the deadline. San Diego would be silly to keep him when they could turn him into a prospect or two. Rebuilding teams sign reclamation projects like Ross specifically so they can flip them for prospects.

So far this season Ross has a 3.78 ERA (4.31 FIP) in exactly 100 innings, though, like Happ, his last start was disaster (seven runs in five innings). Prior to that Ross had a 3.32 ERA (3.87 FIP) in 95 innings. His strikeout (21.4%) and ground ball (43.8%) rates aren’t nearly as good as they were before his 2016-17 arm problems. I see Ross as more of a secondary target a la Jaime Garcia last year. Someone to add for depth. Not someone you’re counting on to really make a difference, you know?

Reds, Tigers, Royals all scouting Yankees

The Reds, Tigers, and Royals have all been scouting the Yankees in recent weeks, according to George King. The Royals had a scout on hand Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday at Yankee Stadium while Reds had someone in the Bronx on Monday and Tuesday. Kansas City has also been scouting Double-A Trenton. The Tigers, meanwhile, have been covering the farm system thoroughly. Undoubtedly other teams are scouting the system as well.

I think it’s safe to assume the Tigers are doing their due diligence in advance of a potential Fulmer trade. The Reds have Harvey and Raisel Iglesias — would they move Luis Castillo? — while the Royals have Danny Duffy and Mike Moustakas, who I supposed could play first base. It might seem like a stretch that the Yankees would trade an MLB roster player(s) for any of those guys, but Jonathan Loaisiga started Monday and Domingo German started Tuesday. I don’t think the Yankees would make either off-limits. I’m not saying they should trade them. But they would in the right deal, for sure.

Yankees trade Chase Headley and Bryan Mitchell to Padres in salary dump deal

December 12, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

1:31pm ET: The Yankees have announced the trade. They get Blash from the Padres for Headley, Mitchell, and cash considerations. Mark Feinsand says the Yankees are sending $500,000 to the Padres. Jon Heyman says the two teams are splitting the $1M assignment bonus in Headley’s contract.

11:17am ET: The Yankees have cleared up more payroll space under the luxury tax threshold. According to Joel Sherman and Ken Rosenthal, the Yankees have traded Chase Headley and Bryan Mitchell to the Padres for outfielder Jabari Blash. San Diego is taking on Headley’s entire $13M salary. It’s a straight salary dump trade. The Yankees also open a 40-man roster spot. Neither team has confirmed the deal.

For all intents and purposes, the Padres purchased Mitchell from the Yankees for $13M. That’s what it boils down to. Mitchell clearly has quality stuff, including a high spin curveball, though he’s been unable to find success in the big leagues the last few years — he has a 4.94 ERA (4.26 FIP) in 98.1 career innings — and had fallen way down the depth chart. The Yankees managed to attach Mitchell to Headley to dump Headley’s entire salary. That seems pretty good to me.

Furthermore, Mitchell is out of minor league options, meaning he can’t go to the minors without passing through waivers. He was on the 40-man roster chopping block as it is — I thought he might get the axe when the Yankees needed to clear 40-man space for their Rule 5 Draft protections last month — and there was little chance he’d break camp with the team next year. The Yankees might’ve lost Mitchell for nothing had they held on to him. Going to the Padres will be a good opportunity for him. Mitchell is a classic change of scenery candidate.

Headley, who is entering the final year of his four-year contract worth $52M, hit .273/.352/.406 (104 wRC+) with 12 home runs in 2017. He moved from third base over to first, and was tentatively scheduled to start at third base again next year. Headley could be very streaky, his highs were very high and his lows were very low, but overall he was an okay player for New York. Nice guy, did whatever the team asked, etc.

The 28-year-old Blash is a former Rule 5 Draft who went from the Athletics to the Padres in the Drew Pomeranz-Yonder Alonso trade two winters ago. He’s a career .200/.323/.336 (84 wRC+) hitter with eight homers in 99 big league games, and his one standout tool is his huge raw power. Blash can do this to a baseball:

There’s not much Blash can do other than hit the ball a mile when he connects, and hey, that’s a good skill to have. He put up a .285/.419/.617 (165 wRC+) line with 20 homers in 72 Triple-A games this past season, though that happened in the very hitter friendly Pacific Coast League and in a very hitter friendly home ballpark in El Paso. El Paso as a team hit .283/.349/.473 this season, so yeah.

Blash has a minor league option remaining, though I get the sense he is not long for the 40-man roster. He was included in the trade because the rules say the Padres had to send the Yankees something, and Blash was it. If anything, maybe he’s another layer of outfield depth should the Yankees trade Clint Frazier for a pitcher? Even then, they still have Jake Cave and Billy McKinney on the 40-man. Jabari’s time in pinstripes may be short.

This trade definitely feels like a precursor to another move (or moves). The Yankees now have approximately $35M in payroll space under the $197M luxury tax threshold, though keep in mind they need to set some money aside for midseason call-ups and additions. Starting pitching has been most talked about, though I have to think the Yankees will dip their toe into the infield market now that Headley and Starlin Castro are gone. Would they really go with kids at second and third bases? Maybe! We’ll find out soon enough.

Scouting the Trade Market: Trevor Cahill

July 21, 2017 by Steven Tydings Leave a Comment

After Tuesday’s seven-player trade, the Yankees loudly announced they were buyers. The trade solved many of their issues, but they still have a hole in the back of their rotation with Michael Pineda lost for the season after Tommy John surgery.

A veteran innings eater who can more reliably provide solid innings than Bryan Mitchell and Luis Cessa appears to be the logical next move for Brian Cashman. One pitcher who could not only eat those innings but potentially do so effectively is Trevor Cahill, the journeyman starter with a 55.1 percent career groundball rate who is currently with the San Diego Padres. On a cheap one-year deal, the 29-year-old righty has a 3.14 ERA (3.22 FIP) in 57 1/3 innings over 10 starts for one of the worst teams in baseball.

Let’s dive into the Friars’ top rotation piece at the present:

Current Performance

In the middle of 2015, it looked like Cahill’s time as a starter was kaput. He’d been dealt to the Braves and had thrown 26 1/3 well-below-average innings before Atlanta DFA’d him. He’d made just three starts and had a 7.52 ERA in 15 total games.

But his career turned when he joined the Cubs late in the season. Used exclusively as a reliever, Cahill became a strikeout machine for the first time in his career while still keeping the ball on the ground as a sinkerballer. He pitched to a 2.61 ERA (4.10 FIP) in Chicago while upping his strikeout rate significantly. This came through an adjustment in his motion and upping the usage of his curveball and changeup.

Cahill turned down teams looking at him as a reliever and took a cheap one-year contract with the Padres, who gave him an opportunity to start and play near his hometown of Oceanside, Calif. It’s paid off big time.

In his 10 starts, he’s been able to translate his strikeout numbers from the bullpen into consistent success in the rotation. He has a 29.5 percent strikeout rate, up more than 10 percent from his last full season as a starter. His 8.3 percent walk rate is near the lowest mark he’s posted as a starter. He’s maintained a GB-to-FB ratio above two for the last three seasons and most of his career, making him ideally suited for a hitter’s haven, let alone one of the largest fields in the league at Petco Park.

Cahill is a true five-pitch pitcher. His four-seam fastball and sinker sit in the low-90s with the sinker being his primary pitch, thrown 37 percent of the time (the lowest rate of his career). Off-speed, he turns to his low-80s, high-70s knuckle curveball, a mid-80s changeup and a mid-80s slider. Each of his pitches has been relatively effective this season, especially the curveball, which rates as one of the best in the game. Check out how he’s able to get swings and misses on all his pitches.

His home/road splits are something of which to be wary. He has a 5.01 ERA away from Petco and you have to wonder whether his solid HR/9 numbers would slide even more at Yankee Stadium. His strikeout and walk rates have mostly held up away from home.

Injury history

Cahill comes with a bit of a checkered injury past. He’s already spent time on the disabled list with two separate injuries. First, he missed 10 days in April with a back strain. He then lost over 1.5 months with a shoulder strain. He’s spent 60 total days on the DL this season. He also missed time in 2013 with a hip contusion.

If you’re looking for positives, the injuries and subsequent missed time could be a blessing in disguise. He hadn’t thrown more than 65 2/3 innings since 2014, so it was unlikely he’d be able to handle 200 innings like he used to.

What would it take?

Mike had a pretty good breakdown of what you can expect a rental starter to cost in his breakdown of Jaime Garcia’s trade value. Make sure to check that out here.

With Cahill, his cheap contract could make a small difference compared to other rentals. Signed for $1.75 million in the offseason, he has less than $1 million left on his base salary. He earns $250,000 for start No. 15, 20 and 25 this season and he’ll earns a $250,000 bonus if he is traded.

Even with the incentives, he’s one of the cheaper players on the market because of his prove-it contract. The Padres can presumably ask for a slightly larger return than he would normally get, although his injuries could limit his market.

Does he make sense for the Yankees?

Surely. A 29-year-old rental with strong strikeout and groundball rates at Yankee Stadium? Sign me up. Like with Garcia or any rental, the Yankees would get a close look at him for the last few months of the season with eyes towards perhaps re-signing him in the offseason.

You obviously can’t overlook his injuries, but his numbers indicate that a team trading for him could catch lightning in a bottle for the stretch run. His experience in relief makes him slightly more attractive for a team with playoff dreams.

Trade Deadline Rumors: Buyers, Hand, Maurer, Phelps, Ramos

July 10, 2017 by Mike Leave a Comment

The 2017 trade deadline is exactly three weeks away, which means the trade rumor mill is really going to start to heat up soon. Pretty much right after the All-Star break. Here’s the latest on the Yankees.

Yankees will be “careful buyers”

All the recent losing has complicated the Yankees’ deadline plans. A few weeks ago they were clear cut contenders with the motivation to buy. Now they’re on the postseason bubble — they are 3.5 games back of the Red Sox in the AL East and essentially one game up on a wildcard spot — and it’s unclear whether buying would be a smart move. During a YES Network interview yesterday (video link), Brian Cashman said the Yankees will be “careful buyers.”

“I think our interest would be buyers, but I think we’re gonna be careful buyers. We have a long-term plan that I think people are seeing excitement from. We’re definitely not gonna deviate from that. But also, part of that long-term plan is, in the short term, winning now and putting out the best effort possible, but not at the expense of what we feel can lead us to more championships … In the next three weeks, Hal Steinbrenner and myself and our entire staff will be trying to do a better job of legitimately plugging holes, if possible. So far I can tell you that sticker prices are pretty high and we’re saying no to a lot of (trades) that have currently been presented to us. But you keep working through it.”

One thing to keep in mind: Hal didn’t want to sell last year. He only gave the okay after Aroldis Chapman turned down a contract extension. I suppose the Yankees could sell again if they keep slipping in the standings, but the trade deadline is only three weeks away, and I don’t think they’ll fall that much. My guess is the Yankees will buy, but not buy big. Maybe a stopgap first baseman and some bullpen arms. I would be surprised if they trade a top prospect.

Yankees, Padres have talked Hand, Maurer

According to Joel Sherman, the Yankees and Padres have talked about relievers Brad Hand and Brandon Maurer. San Diego did ask about Gleyber Torres recently but Sherman says it’s understood they’re not getting a prospect of that caliber for a reliever. One Padres official told Sherman the Yankees have enough pieces to do a deal even without their top prospects. “They had a real good system last year, and it has taken another step up this year,” said one executive.

Here’s my Scouting The Market post on Hand. I’ll refer you to that. As for Maurer, the 27-year-old has a 5.60 ERA (2.95 FIP) with 24.3% walks and 4.9% walks this year. He’s been hurt by a shockingly low strand rate (52.9%) and the fact he’s always been a bit more hittable than his upper-90s fastball and two mid-80s secondary pitches (slider, changeup) would lead you to believe. Maurer, like Hand, is under team control through 2019 as an arbitration-eligible player. I prefer Hand. I’ve had my fill of these “more hittable than his stuff would indicate” guys.

Yankees have asked about Phelps, Ramos

The Yankees have contacted the Marlins about righty relievers David Phelps and A.J. Ramos, reports Sherman. The Marlins are starting to sell off pieces — Adeiny Hechavarria was traded to the Rays a few weeks back — and as relievers with one year of control remaining and not cheap salaries, Phelps ($4.6M) and Ramos ($6.55M) are obvious trade chips. I think both will be moved before the deadline, but what do I know?

Phelps, 30, has a 3.68 ERA (3.54 FIP) with 26.4% strikeouts and 8.8% walks in 44 innings this year. He really broke out in a true short relief role last year — Phelps had a 2.31 ERA (2.75 FIP) out of the bullpen in 2016 — before the Marlins moved him back into the rotation out of necessity. The 30-year-old Ramos has a 3.51 ERA (3.60 FIP) with 29.6% strikeouts and 12.7% walks in 33.1 innings this season. He’s always been a cardiac closer. Ramos isn’t shy about putting guys on base, though because he misses so many bats, he can get out of jams more often then not. I don’t really have a preference here. I think the Padres guys would probably provide more bang for the buck.

Padres, Marlins scouting Yankees heavily

The Padres and Marlins are currently scouting the Yankees’ farm system, report George King and Clark Spencer, which obviously ties back into those Hand/Maurer and Phelps/Ramos rumors. King says the Padres have sent assistant general manager David Post to watch Triple-A Scranton recently. Spencer says the Marlins are simply “focusing heavily” on New York’s system. (And several other teams too.)

I’m kinda curious to know when Post was scouting the RailRiders because the Yankees have called up many of their best prospects within the last two weeks. Chance Adams and Miguel Andujar are still down in Triple-A, but others like Tyler Wade, Dustin Fowler, and Clint Frazier are all in the big leagues. Hmmm. Maybe the Padres will be really sold on Billy McKinney’s recently hot streak or something. Anyway, potential sellers are scouting the farm system of a potential buyer. News at 11.